This is the first official week of summer 2020! It's been warm-ish here in Northern Illinois, but lots of overcast days too. Hopefully, this is the end of the overcast and the start of real sunshine summer, but I digress.
I'm excited to get my new Chromebook today and will report back on how it does. I think it's the right form factor and price that just about anybody could benefit from having one of these Lenovo Chromebook Duets for $249.
Markets were up ~1% when futures opened before going red around bedtime last night. They got their usual Mnuchin/Powell pump in the wee hours of the morning to be up ~1% when I woke up. And are now about flat. It'll be an interesting day.
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1) The coronavirus continues to spread. 6 of Trump's staffers tested positive ahead of his Tulsa rally. Texas and Florida continue to see new record daily highs for new cases. The chart below is one I've been updating every day since March. The blue line is total cases. The red line is a rolling 7-day average of new daily cases. It's interesting that the red line, daily cases, started to spike right when the economy reopened. There's some amount of increased testing driving it, sure. But also more cases.
*Bonus chart: Florida & Arizona testing levels w/ positivity rate spiking too.
2) It's going to take a long time to work through the massive unemployment/job losses. Look at how quickly jobs were lost in 2008 and how long it took to gain them back. This is going to be a story for 5-10 years.
3) Really interesting! The Fed has bought more purchases as a percentage of the Treasury market than any other "Quantitative Easing" program. Not quite as much as a % of GDP - but maybe they'll get there!
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Knowing where futures are trading, somewhat flat, I'll tread lightly and not make too many drastic moves. I want to add Sempra somehow this week, but don't want to increase utility exposure, net exposure, or gross exposure. So that means I'll have to sell another utility holding or two. We'll see how utilities trade before making that call.
Good news in the PCG bankruptcy case! The judge approved their bankruptcy reorganization. The company has already filed an equity issuance of $4 billion+ to recapitalize the business. I will watch how it trades and the details of the issuance, but it's looking like my thesis is playing out. After the issuance, I'd expect shares to start climbing as earnings guidance can be given - and it'll be a shockingly high number to many followers.
I'm excited to get my new Chromebook today and will report back on how it does. I think it's the right form factor and price that just about anybody could benefit from having one of these Lenovo Chromebook Duets for $249.
Markets were up ~1% when futures opened before going red around bedtime last night. They got their usual Mnuchin/Powell pump in the wee hours of the morning to be up ~1% when I woke up. And are now about flat. It'll be an interesting day.
____________________________________________________
1) The coronavirus continues to spread. 6 of Trump's staffers tested positive ahead of his Tulsa rally. Texas and Florida continue to see new record daily highs for new cases. The chart below is one I've been updating every day since March. The blue line is total cases. The red line is a rolling 7-day average of new daily cases. It's interesting that the red line, daily cases, started to spike right when the economy reopened. There's some amount of increased testing driving it, sure. But also more cases.
*Bonus chart: Florida & Arizona testing levels w/ positivity rate spiking too.
2) It's going to take a long time to work through the massive unemployment/job losses. Look at how quickly jobs were lost in 2008 and how long it took to gain them back. This is going to be a story for 5-10 years.
3) Really interesting! The Fed has bought more purchases as a percentage of the Treasury market than any other "Quantitative Easing" program. Not quite as much as a % of GDP - but maybe they'll get there!
____________________________________________________
Knowing where futures are trading, somewhat flat, I'll tread lightly and not make too many drastic moves. I want to add Sempra somehow this week, but don't want to increase utility exposure, net exposure, or gross exposure. So that means I'll have to sell another utility holding or two. We'll see how utilities trade before making that call.
Good news in the PCG bankruptcy case! The judge approved their bankruptcy reorganization. The company has already filed an equity issuance of $4 billion+ to recapitalize the business. I will watch how it trades and the details of the issuance, but it's looking like my thesis is playing out. After the issuance, I'd expect shares to start climbing as earnings guidance can be given - and it'll be a shockingly high number to many followers.
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