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Brrrrr - 7/29/20

Today is Fed meeting day, where they'll formally announce the unlimited, permanent easing they strangely pre-annnounced yesterday. Nothing that Pond Scum Powell does is "normal" though, so we shouldn't be surprised. Besides, the market was down and needed a boost.

Not that it mattered as the broad markets finished at the lows and saw pretty sizeable weakness take root in the final 90 minutes of trade.

Lots of earnings to sort through, if that's your bag.

And futures went green sometime in the overnight session (of course).

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1) If you're someone that likes to pick your assets and have them perform different from other assets, it seems your time has come! Cross-asset correlations are elevated - which means they should normalize soon - so your bet on glass prices vs. cattle or 1980s Legos vs. 2000s Pokemon cards could finally pay off!

Cross asset correlation: Gold, dollar, yields, bitcoin

2) Lots of crowding in the momentum trade...
Momentum crowding at extreme levels - you are not alone playing that momentum trade

3) Interesting:
Real yields - the new buzz word

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Yesterday was an interesting day. After a red open, we rallied and held. But with about 90 minutes to go, the markets fell apart and finished at the lows. Those kind of reversals tend to have carry-through.

So I'm glad to be bearishly positioned.

But we get the Dovish Fed today and the month-end markup that could push stocks higher. So I'll tread lightly on the short side and might start to add some "trendy" long ideas to capitalize on the mark-ups.

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