I'm going through a sleep cycle where my body wants to sleep in later. So getting a later than normal start this morning. Which stinks because it's a Monday. But we'll get all of the pre-market work done as quickly as possible. It's not my first rodeo.
The news this morning is vaccine optimism. Again. Futures were green most of the night before turning modestly red by the time I woke up.
Remember, this is a huge week of earnings. Check out my "Week Ahead" note from Sunday if you want to see who reports when.
____________________________________________
1) Here's a chart you might come across this week that implies further upside ahead. The top chart shows that bases on earnings revisions, the bottom is behind us. However, dig into it a bit and you'll see that the increase in the latest bar is miniscule. So bulls will share the top chart while bears will share the bottom chart. It's a beautiful fight, isn't it?
2) If you didn't catch the Trump interview on Fox or the clips being replayed everywhere else, it's worth watching. He's clearly being fed fake data or skewed...or straight up can't read it. One of the questions related to covid cases - he said we're #1. Which we are...just not in the way he implied...
3) Are we going to get a double dip recession? Various asset classes are implying different probabilities. I'm obviously in the camp that believes we're not done with economic pain, but the future isn't written.
____________________________________________
With futures basically flat, I'll hold my Asian long positions for a bit. I need to see direction from the market - either via the VIX moving or markets moving.
So I'll sit at ~10% short and wait to move either way for some help from the markets. I think any further rally is one to be sold. Thank goodness earnings season is here to keep a lid on the euphoria of a new vaccine. We never sell off after the old vaccines aren't proven to be effective, but that's a story for another day.
So good luck. Chop chop chop. And get your sleep.
The news this morning is vaccine optimism. Again. Futures were green most of the night before turning modestly red by the time I woke up.
Remember, this is a huge week of earnings. Check out my "Week Ahead" note from Sunday if you want to see who reports when.
____________________________________________
1) Here's a chart you might come across this week that implies further upside ahead. The top chart shows that bases on earnings revisions, the bottom is behind us. However, dig into it a bit and you'll see that the increase in the latest bar is miniscule. So bulls will share the top chart while bears will share the bottom chart. It's a beautiful fight, isn't it?
2) If you didn't catch the Trump interview on Fox or the clips being replayed everywhere else, it's worth watching. He's clearly being fed fake data or skewed...or straight up can't read it. One of the questions related to covid cases - he said we're #1. Which we are...just not in the way he implied...
3) Are we going to get a double dip recession? Various asset classes are implying different probabilities. I'm obviously in the camp that believes we're not done with economic pain, but the future isn't written.
____________________________________________
With futures basically flat, I'll hold my Asian long positions for a bit. I need to see direction from the market - either via the VIX moving or markets moving.
So I'll sit at ~10% short and wait to move either way for some help from the markets. I think any further rally is one to be sold. Thank goodness earnings season is here to keep a lid on the euphoria of a new vaccine. We never sell off after the old vaccines aren't proven to be effective, but that's a story for another day.
So good luck. Chop chop chop. And get your sleep.
Comments
Post a Comment