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Take it Easy (Money) - 7/28/20

Gold flew yesterday, up 2% with silver up over 5%. The inflation trade has taken off. I think it might see a correction sooner than later, but have no position other than a modest TIP position that is more of a call on interest rates than inflation, in my mind.

Markets also had a green day driven by the GOP stimulus plan. Whether the Democrats approve of it or not will be the driving force for the next leg of the trade. I'm sure the Democrats want to add more to the stimulus, not take stuff out.

When do we stop paying taxes? If the government can borrow and print in unlimited amounts, what's the point of taxes? It's just a phony game we play since it's all made up. What a sham.

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1) Let's talk about negative policy rates again. Powell quashed the idea in June, but futures traders don't believe him.



2) The market indexes are pretty concentrated, but not at record levels.



3) Insiders are selling their shares at a record pace.


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I had another fairly successful day-trading day. Good enough to offset 100% of the losses from being too short. So that means I can survive another day as a bear without feeling the pain of being "wrong" or early to the trade. I don't know if there are any reasons to be bullish that are priced in - other than the burning of the dollar and the corresponding devaluation/inflation that drives up asset prices. That's a huge, scary issue that could also drive back down stock prices just as quickly - even if inflation takes root.

Spire and Terraform are looking good - and I might add in the next few days on continued weakness. Also, EIX had a rough day and might warrant being added back. TBD.

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