Don't Test, Don't Tell - 8/18/20

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Tweeted this chart about Florida's daily covid cases.

He poses it as an example of the successful job he and Floridians have done to stop the spread. What this chart, and any text he wrote, doesn't show us is that testing is down drastically in this time period. 

Here's a similar chart with average weekly tests overlayed on average weekly cases. Which is which doesn't matter - the shapes of the curves match. The testing positivity rate has held flat - which is a good sign that the virus isn't spreading too, too much. But to say cases are down when testing is also down is not reality. 

People manipulate data for all sorts of reasons, and it's clear that the data on cases is being manipulated by DeSantis for Trump's political benefit. 

Are you throwing up a little in your mouth? I sure am. 

Stocks rallied again yesterday, record closes. Yay! Why we need stimulus when stocks are at record levels is beyond me. (I kid, but seriously..stocks are stupidly over-extended.)

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1) Manhattan rents are plummetting!

2) People aren't paying their mortgage loans...

3) Apple is up because of multiple expansion, not better business results.

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I'm increasingly thinking now is the time to start shorting the Nasdaq. They've been the leaders through the rally, stalled, and are possibly taking their final gasps higher before failing. The market is trading at 20-22x P/E while the leaders trade over 30x. Seems like an obvious trade to short the big, expensive companies and buy the small, cheap companies. Value trade time...I might pair an equal-weighted S&P as  a long vs. the regular Nasdaq as a short. Seems compelling.

Oh, man. 

Also, enjoy watching the DNC this week. I usually can''t stand to watch the hating on wealth and success, but this administration has shown us that they don't even pretend give a damn about regular people. The pendulum has swung too far towards the rich. I hope the Democrats have a message of unity and not division, but I'm a political skeptic and think they might be pulled to the extreme left. 

My read on this election is that the Democrats will crush Trump if they ran as moderates with an everyman message. The swing voter that voted for Trump in 2016 isn't a group of radicals. It's regular people who wanted an outsider. After seeing what a moron they chose, they want a return to "normal" and Joe Biden, a relatable moderate Democrat, is as normal as they come. But the crazy, liberal wing of the party is vocal and thinks the answer to crazy is crazy. A 3rd party candidate who ran as a moderate would have a serious shot in this cycle, if the Dems go left. I hope they stay moderate-ish.