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Presidential Debate - 9/30/20

Last night, we got to see our two Presidential candidates debate. Sort of. Donald Trump barely let anybody else speak. I don't believe Joe Biden said a complete sentence without an interruption. Biden didn't just let himself get victimized - he called Trump a clown and got in a few good jabs while Trump railed about his typical list of favorite conspiracies. Trump most definitely lost the debate. He didn't seem Presidential, he acted like a baby, and showed his lack of respect and decorum. Biden didn't "win" so much as not lose. He got caught up in the childish behavior a little bit. But he spoke directly to the American people and generally seemed "with it". It was the most surreal debate I've ever seen. America lost, Trump lost, Biden survived.

Trump also called for a white supremacist group, the Proud Boys, to "stand down and standby" when asked to denounce white supremacists. Obviously, not what was asked and more of a military order than denouncing racial hatred.

Yesterday, I had a solid day of day-trading - typical on red days for whatever reason. I trade both ways on my daily round trippers, so it's not like I have a bias or anything. I'm just trying to pick up nickels in the 5-15 minute rallies and selloffs throughout the day. I tend to have a better "feel" for markets on red. It's sort of peculiar. So on red days, I trade larger positions and on green, I trade smaller. I had an order on TZA get stuck in purgatory - a pretty big order - and figured I'd hedge it with TNA (assuming the TZA order got filled). Well, it turned out that the TZA order was cancelled for some reason. Thankfully, the TNA trade was a profitable one and the whole ordeal was stressful but made money. Had it gone the other way, I would have been really angry. Oh, well. Just keep moving.

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1) No liquidity concerns.



2) "W-shaped" recovery in searches for autos and auto loans.



3) "K-shaped" recovery data.


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My short on TSLA yesterday, while a fairly small profit, was a nice win. Especially seeing the share price jump higher after I covered. It's always fun to get the timing right on that sort of thing. Even if I held it longer and made more money, it's the timing of the decision that matters. Nobody goes broke booking gains!

If I'm trading single stocks on a day-trade, I share them here. Unless it's one of those 1 share deals when I'm just touching the name for fun. My day-trading that I don't share is usually the 3x ETFs - TQQQ/SQQQ, TNA/TZA, and SPXL/SPXU. I've found I'm a pretty decent trader and it makes sense to use the 3x versions of the indexes rather than trade in massive amounts on the unlevered ETFs. Some wonkiness happens in levered-land, but you get used to it after a while. I hardly ever hold a levered ETF overnight. The math of sequence of returns isn't worth it. If I decide to stick with a trade overnight, I'll gross up my position into the unlevered version. But most of the time I'll close it and move on with my life.

Markets are showing red this morning. It feels like it has legs after last nights embarrassment of a debate and Trump refusing to accept election results he doesn't like. Glad I'm not long!

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