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Showing posts from April, 2022

SELL QQQ @ $322.43

Selling QQQ @ $322.43 Realized loss of $5.62 (1.71%) Apologies - but my stop got hit in yesterday's carnage. I knew the trade was aggressive when I put it on, but the risk/reward was worthwhile. With the VIX spike yesterday, especially into the final hour of trading, it's not time to push bets. Remember, when the VIX spikes, what do I do? Reduce my gross! I'm 39% gross exposed and 34% gross long of equities. Not bad positioning to start upping my exposure when the VIX stops going up. We'll see how the first hour or so of trading goes today before deciding whether to do anything. My inclination is to buy risk assets, but after this loss I might start with a pair trade or two.

BUY QQQ @ $328.05

Buying QQQ @ $328.05 20% position I've said it before and I'll say it again - but REVERSALS MATTER. The VIX has reversed alongside the broad equity indices. That's time to act! There's a lot of risk out there with earnings reports coming - but I'll push out some chips and see what happens. Buying the Qs here this afternoon with tight stops at the day's low and hopefully grabbing upside on earnings results...

SELL DIA @ $352.75

Selling DIA @ $352.75 Realized gain of $4.77 (1.37%) I upped my stop order on this today to ensure I made a profit. I put it below the open in case we got a reversal today - and that happened. So I locked in my gain and can move on. This trade and the QQQ/IWM trades that accompanied it are a lesson in active position management. I entered with clearly defined stop orders and let the positions work. The QQQ stop got hit quickly. The IWM trade turned into a decent profit as I moved up my stop. And I let this one ride a bit as the broad thesis remained intact. I added 24bps to my account value between the 3 trades. I'm now sitting on about 60% cash and am ready for the next great idea. Is the relief rally over? Do bonds rally? Let's figure it out!

BUY NFLX @ $222.83

Buying NFLX @ $222.83 2% position Let's panic sell Netflix because they lost 200k subscribers out of 200 million! Send shares down 35% in a day! Run for the exits! ............ Or we dispassionately buy shares of the industry leader now trading at a very reasonable 20x P/E. Pick you adventure. I'm probably early here.

COVER TWTR SHORT @ $44.93

Covering TWTR Short at $44.93 Realized gain of $1.05 (2.28%) Dirty day traders need to make some money too! This was a very reactionary trade that needed a short leash. Making 2% in an hour or so is pretty darn good - so I'll take the profit and let the story play out without worrying about it from here. Say I think TWTR is worth $35/share vs. Musks' "offer" of $54.20. That's about equal upside vs. downside (20% each). While the probability of going down might be higher than going up, I don't want to have to babysit the story. Frankly, I don't care about whether Twitter gets taken private by Musk or anybody else.  On to the next trade!

SHORT TWTR @ $45.98

Shorting TWTR @ $45.98 5% position Is Elon Musk really going to take Twitter private at $54.20/share? Remember, the board of Twitter estimated the value of shares to be over $70 less than a year ago! Anytime I can bet against Elon's wild tweeting, I do. He's a visionary, to be sure...but he's very full of sh!t when it comes to non-visionary things.

SELL IWM @ $200.37

Selling IWM at $200.37 Realized gain of $1.90 (0.96%) I let the stop breathe a bit, but pushed it tighter today to ensure a gain. The choppy morning trading and inability to hold incremental highs is the rationale for getting aggressive with the stop order. This gain nearly makes up for the loss on QQQ I realized when that stop got hit last week. I'm still long of DIA with a bit of room on that stop of $341.90 vs. the last price of ~$346.xx

SELL WBD @ $27.48

Selling WBD @ $27.48 Realized gain of $3.42 (14.21%) This might not be the best representation from a tax-standpoint - but I think this amount of gain best reflects the decision I made to buy shares of T before the spin. I think there's more upside from here - but the huge debt load relative to other streaming services is daunting and fraught with risk. I don't need to play that game...and am more of an income-focused investor. I'm holding a few shares in my real account - as a lottery ticket of sorts - but below the threshold where I'll keep it in this portfolio.

Tax Basis for T/WBD Spin

Yesterday, my shares of  AT&T spun out 0.24 shares of WBD for every T share I held. I wrote an estimate of the adjusted cost basis using a logical approach - basically assuming the spinco value on Day 1 reduced my cost basis of AT&T.  (I'd purchased AT&T at $24.06 - so assumed by cost basis was 76% of that, or $17.80. The remaining $6.26 of cost-basis was applied to WBD and scaled up for the share count difference.) I learned today, after all of the dust settled and WBD shares are trading "regular way", that the cost basis of WBD is $0.00 - and my cost basis of T is unchanged. This has pretty important implications for my decision making on what to do with WBD shares. Long story short, I'm not selling in taxable accounts but plan to sell in non-taxable accounts and roll the proceeds back into AT&T. My debate on this platform is: 1) Do I treat the account as taxable? 2) Do I treat the account as non-taxable? 3) Do I continue with my adjusted cost-basis

CLOSE PAIR: BND vs. JNK

Closing pair trade of long BND vs. short JNK Sell BND @ $77.21 - realized loss of $2.21 (-2.78%) Cover JNK @ $99.36 - realized gain of $3.55 (+3.45%) Total Gain of 0.79% The VIX is at highs of the day after reversing lower early and that's my sign to reduce gross exposure. So I'll take my profit on this trade and move on with life. We will likely see credit spreads widen further - but making about 1% on a fixed-income trade in a week or so is a great gain!

AT&T Spin - Adjustment to Weight & Holdings

AT&T spun shares of Time Warner Discovery today - 0.24 shares of WBDWV per T share. T weight down from 4% to 3% - cost basis down from $24.06 to $17.80 WBDWV now 1% weight with a cost basis of $24.06 I think I'm doing the math right here on the cost-basis for WBDWV. My original T cost basis was $24.06 - so subtracting the implied value of the spinco based on the split ratio means my T cost basis is now $17.80. That means my unadjusted basis in spinco is $6.26. But it needs to be scaled up by the share count difference - so 6.26/.24 = 24.06 Does that make sense? The value of spinco is set to be equal to pre-spin T - with share number being the adjustment factor, not price? Feels about right given where both shares are trading today relative to Friday and my cost basis estimates. I'm not sure when I can actually trade spinco - and don't know if I'll keep it or dump it to buy back to 4%+ in AT&T. The yield on T is a juicy 5.78% and it's in a MUCH BETTER situati

STOPPED OUT of QQQ @ $348.69

Stopped out of QQQ @ $348.69 Realized loss of $4.22 (1.20%) I've still got my IWM and DIA long positions. Had I been paying more attention, I would have let this breathe a bit more - but that's ok. With the VIX turning down from the spike at the open, I'm on the hunt for new longs. It still looks to me that the bear market rally has room to run.

TRADE: BUY 20% QQQ @ $352.91

Buying QQQ @ $352.91 20% position This is a trade. I think the recent selloff has moved too far and we're due for a relief rally. I see clear upside to $360+ and have set my stop at today's low of $348.69 - essentially a trade with 3-to-1 upside vs. downside...and greater odds of upside to boot (by my estimation). We'll see how it plays out...