Brook Reef

Selling TNA @ $34.91 Realized gain of $0.14 (0.40%) Not a bad little day trade, eh? It's not going to make me rich, but I'm not going to complain about it. Month-end is wonky. Who knows what will happen into the close, so I'll take this profit now. Hopefully, September brings some #reality to the markets and we dump hard!

Buying TNA @ $34.77 5% position Month-end markup day is here. And while this isn't the perfect setup because the VIX is up ~2% today, I'll take a shot anyways. TNA is a triple-levered version of IWM, the Russell 200....which I'm short. But for a day-trade, you have to go against the grain sometimes. I'll sell this at some point today. This is a flipper. I want to show you how I try to navigate important days like today.

Selling Utilities Basket of EIX, D, CMS, and DUK Selling: EIX @ $52.28 D @ $78.88 CMS @ $60.62 DUK @ $81.34 Realized Gains: EIX: $1.74 (3.44%) D: $1.26 (1.62%) CMS: $0.67 (1.12%) DUK: $0.77 (0.96%) Not a bad trade - putting 8% of my money into a basket of fairly safe utilities and making somewhere between 1-2% on that money in 10 days.  I keep talking about wanting to reduce gross exposure, and this was an easy way to make a big splash in that regard. These utilities are wonderful, but probably toppy in the near-term. They're all on my short list of buys if/when I need to up my gross or net exposures.

Isn't it amazing how different Trump is on teleprompter vs. unscripted. I was thinking about that last night during his 72 minute speech. What other speaker/president sounded so different reading a speech vs. just talking? Part of it is that the vocabulary in his unscripted talks is so limited, almost childish, but in teleprompter speeches Trump uses a variety of big words. Obama undoubtedly has a big vocabulary. Even George W. Bush sounded about the same scripted vs. not. His writers must have known how to make him sound real. Anyhow... Trump's speech is another "I'm the  victim" and "I take no responsibility"" kind of speech. He's telling us to be scared of Joe Biden's America, but we're living in Trump's America right now...the violence, looting, and peaceful protests are all happening in Trump's America. Take some damn responsibility! Futures are up this morning, of course, but what else is new? ____________________________ 1...

Jerome Powell is set to speak before the open today and will push his notion that the 2% inflation target shouldn't be a hard limit, but rather a flexible goal that should be met over time. Like inflation can run above 2% for periods so long as it runs below for equal periods. He's not scared of inflation. We'll see what else he says. Stopping inflation requires raising rates and can cause economic pain - something he's incapable of doing. He loves to buy the mini dip. Despite the NBA cancelling games, a few MLB teams, and the WNBA paying homage at the 7:00 mark of each quarter, Mike Pence and the RNC pushed their "Law & Order" agenda. He even mentioned Kenosha by name as a place that needs law & order. He didn't address the fact that an unarmed black man was shot in the back 7 times at close range and is paralyzed from the waist down while a white boy crossed the state border with an illegal gun, shot two people, and went home peacefully before be...

Night 2 of the RNC last night. Headlined by Melania Trump, dressed up as "Military Melania" in  dark green jumpsuit with leather belted waist and square shoulders. It was a strange look.  Her speech was long and rambling. But overall, not the worst or strangest of the convention so far. Her interactions with Donald were strange and cold. But night 2 of the RNC wasn't as horrendous and strange as night 1. Don't worry, Mnuchin was there at Melania's Rose Garden speech just in case anybody needed a "big check". Stocks are looking flat to up this morning so far. But don't worry.... __________________________________________ 1) .....there's no bubble in the Nasdaq. Oh, wait... 2) The Fear & Greed Index has swung toward the greed side lately. 3) Interesting data on NY subway ridership. Probably pretty true for public transportation across the country. _______________________________________________ My goal in the coming days is to reduce gross expo...

Buying XOM @ $41.28 2% position XOM is being kicked out of the DOW, bro? Replaced by a "dot com" (Salesforce.com)?  Cool story. Real assets, real products aren't dead. Even in an interconnected, high tech world we still need hard, real, tangible assets.  XOM is one of the best.  Let's not be swayed by the DOW bros. Let's do our own thing.

Did you watch the first night of the RNC? The theme was very clear: the Democrats want to install communism in America. No more success. No more individual choice. High taxes. The end of America as we know it. It was very similar to the Democrats who say America will end if Trump is elected because of hate, no more respect for each other, etc. Frankly, I did not enjoy watching the first night of the RNC. I didn't feel uplifted. I don't like Donald Trump more than before. I don't understand him as a person. The Democrats made Joe Biden a guy you respect, feel for, and talked about how great we are together. Who knows what tonight will bring. Markets are higher again this morning. Ugg. ___________________-- 1) Volatility tends to rise after a "switch" election and fall when it's a "same". 2) Monetary conditions remain super easy. 3) I don't think the 10-year is going to rise, but the chart is painting a picture. ____________________________________...

Selling BAM @ $33.97 Realized gain of $0.55 (1.65%) Reversals matter. The Nasdaq might have avoided a reversal, but BAM doesn't appear to be able to join. I had a stop loss in just below the lows of the day and it got hit. I'll be back to BAM again, hopefully lower. Getting stopped out stinks. When it's for a gain, it's not so bad.

The Nasdaq opened at a high and has since reversed. If we close down here at the lows of the day, that's called a "reversal day"...and these types of days typically signify weakness to come, not strength. We're currently at the closing levels from Friday, which should provide some support. Breaking below this level would likely mean weakness as well. However, getting back to the opening levels or higher would be bullish. The afternoon will be interesting today.

The Republicans unveiled their "Key Speakers" for their convention. 1/2 of them are Trumps, over 1/2 if you count Pence. That's a pretty stark contrast to the Democrats. Also noteworthy is the lack of any past GOP nominee or president. I mean, many of them are dead and Romney and Bush have been vocal critics of Trump...but still. Trump and his FDA over the weekend also approved convalescent plasma treatment for covid19. So stock futures are higher this morning on hopes the treatment works. Also, oil is higher as much of the Gulf production has been shut down as we await the 2 tropical storms/hurricanes to hit the coast. This follows a barge hitting a pipeline causing a massive explosion in Corpus Christi, Texas. A guy walks into a bar and orders a Corona and two hurricanes. The bartender says, "That'll be 2020." __________________________________________________________ 1) Let's take a look at the chart of cases I update every day. It's looking prett...

Hello and welcome to my Week Ahead note where I discuss what happened last week, what to expect in the coming week, and anything else I feel like typing out.  The biggest news to me last week was that the rally continued in stocks and the Democrats held their convention. I wrote a lot about the convention in my daily notes this week, but the message was that Trump is dangerous to our country and Joe Biden will restore general respect for one another and rule of law that applies to everybody, including the President.  _________________________________ Weekly performance:  U.S. Indices Dow flat at 27,930. S&P 500  +0.7%  to 3,397. Nasdaq  +2.7%  to 11,312. Russell 2000  -1.8%  to 1,550. CBOE Volatility Index  +2.2%  to 22.54. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples  +0.2% . Utilities  -1.7% . Financials  -3.4% . Telecom  +1.7% . Healthcare  0.% . Industrials  -1.5% . Information Technology  +3.5% . ...

Shorting AAPL @ $492.75 Adding 2% 4% total position 37.5x P/E. 

Shorting XLK @ $117.23 5% position If XLK doesn't look like a crazy bubble to you, then you must be new to stocks. They don't always go up...especially in a vertical line. I'll short some outright - I'm already short XLK in a pair trade against equal-weighted tech (RYT).  This market is stupid nuts. We need reality. I'm still fighting.

Buying Utilities Basket (EIX, D, CMS, & DUK) 2% position in each EIX: $50.54 D: $77.62 CMS: $59.95 DUK: $80.57 I'm making a big splash in the utilities today. Upping my exposure by 8% to the group. I know I wanted to reduce gross exposure, but utilities are way too beaten down in this skyrocketing market.

Stocks finished higher again. Tech stocks jumped higher than ever. All time highs. Tesla broke through $2,000/share. Apple increased its market cap well beyond $2 trillion. It all feels like a growing bubble. Maybe not ready to pop, but growing...   The Democratic Convention ended last night with Joe Biden. All of the commentators talked about how his speech wasn't a "convention" address, it was a "Presidential" address. I agree. His speech was one to try to unify the country. He vowed to represent ALL OF AMERICA, not just his supporters, base, or people who "like" him. Commentators are also saying it was Biden's best speech ever, and it might be, but it wasn't a great delivery. He was clearly reading. He stumbled at times through the words and trying to read or waiting for the prompter. It's fine, I'm not saying the delivery was bad. Just it wasn't the best delivery we've seen this week. Most importantly, I believe that Biden m...

Covering EWJ @ $57.63 Realized gain of $0.40 (0.69%) Not a major win, but a win nonetheless. 

I slept pretty well last night and woke up earlier than normal. I've been drinking coffee and letting my mind wander around various topics. It's been a great morning. I become a bit of a political junkie in Presidential cycles. Normally, it's just for fun. I watch both conventions to see and hear the stark differences in how our nation should be run. I've never been a swing voter by any means, but still think it's my duty to know the broad goals of each party. It's pretty clear that one party is trying to connect with the majority of Americans while the other is doubling down on their extreme base.  President Obama gave a powerful speech yesterday night. If you expected anything less, you've never heard him speak. I never "liked" or "agreed" with most of his speeches, but have always recognized his oratory skill. His killer line last night was about hoping the weight of the office of President would force Trump to take it seriously, repre...

Buying AY @ $30.21 2% position AY is another renewable power producer, just like BEPC that I just sold. It is down today while the other players in the field are up. That's enough reason to buy today.  Atlantica Yield started out its life as Abengoa Yield. Abengoa is a major construction company that got assets by being a builder. Rather than build and sell the assets, they put them into this YieldCo. At some point Abengoa exited their ownership and the name was changed.  This is a more global player than BEPC. That's good new for diversification. Like I said in the sale of BEPC, I've been 25% long this sector as recently as 18 months ago. It's a favorite for sure and the time will come to push the chips back into it. For now, I'll settle for always striving to have at least a small position.

Selling BEPC @ $48.00 Realized gain of $1.45 (3.11%) What'st not to like about making a quick 3% in a day? Trading BEPC seems to be something I'm pretty good at doing. I'm excited to buy it back again lower than this. *There was a time, about 18 months ago, when I had 25% of my portfolio invested in renewable power companies. This is a favorite sector, long-term, and one that I'm not afraid to bet on in a huge way. Now is not the time to push that bet. Which is why I keep tapping in and out. When it's time to get huge in renewable power, don't worry. I've done it and am not afraid to do it again. 25% to a tiny sector is a MASSIVE bet. It's a wheelhouse sector for me, so trust me when I say it's not time to jump in heavy...yet.*

Have you been watching the Democratic National Convention? Last night, Joe Biden officially was offered and accepted the nomination. It was also the second night in a row where one of the speakers used Trump's line "it is what it is" to deride him. The message being sent by the Democrats is clear - Joe Biden is a good, normal person while Donald Trump is an evil, hateful person. I think that they've chosen the correct tact so far.  I thought Bill Clinton gave the best speech last night. We forget how good of a speaker he is. He definitely has a skill for connecting with his audience. I think tonight is Hillary and Kamala Harris, but live my life day by day. Stocks are looking green again today after closing in the green yesterday. ________________________________________ 1) Families have been prepping for virtual learning for a long, long time already: 2) If the CARES 2 package gets passed, we'll have the highest debt/GDP since WW2. 3) We had been considering a mo...

Buying BEPC @ $46.55 2% position This is about where I bought BEPC last time around. It's one of my favorite companies and the future for renewable power is bright. While other companies, mostly tech, have valuations at obscene levels, utilities and hard asset companies have fairly reasonable valuations and well-covered dividends.

Pair trade: Long RYT vs. Short XLK Long RYT @ $211.06 Short XLK @ $115.06 5% each side I think large cap tech is poised to turn down. It's run up quite a bit. I'll hedge out that risk by being long an equal-weighted basket of tech stocks.  My fear is that we haven't yet had the zoom up that happens in a buying mania. We've risen, but not to obscene extremes. Apple and Tesla are vertical, but the QQQ isn't up as stupidly...yet. I hope it doesn't happen, but isn't that what modern monetary theory wants?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Tweeted this chart about Florida's daily covid cases. He poses it as an example of the successful job he and Floridians have done to stop the spread. What this chart, and any text he wrote, doesn't show us is that testing is down drastically in this time period.  Here's a similar chart with average weekly tests overlayed on average weekly cases. Which is which doesn't matter - the shapes of the curves match. The testing positivity rate has held flat - which is a good sign that the virus isn't spreading too, too much. But to say cases are down when testing is also down is not reality.  People manipulate data for all sorts of reasons, and it's clear that the data on cases is being manipulated by DeSantis for Trump's political benefit.  Are you throwing up a little in your mouth? I sure am.  Stocks rallied again yesterday, record closes. Yay! Why we need stimulus when stocks are at record levels is beyond me. (I kid, but seriously....