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Showing posts from July, 2020

BUY CVX @ $83.15

Buying CVX @ $83.15 2% position I hinted at it when I bought KMI today, but Chevron's quarter removes some risk with the stock down. I like oil here and usually play it via pipelines. But I need some long exposure for the weekend and don't have many great ideas. So I'll add CVX into the close here. Not a perfect setup, but it'll do.

DAY TRADE: SELL TQQQ @ $116.21

Selling TQQQ @ $116.21 Realized gain of $1.63 (1.43%) Not a bad little day trade.  This is not a "normal" thing that I do - pushing 15% of my capital into a triple levered ETF for a day trade. That's pretty aggressive.  But it checked my boxes today.  And the great thing about the stock market, is that the scoreboard is clear. You make money, it was the right decision. And this one made money for me. So keep finding new ways to make money. Take advantage of structural advantages you have as a small-time investor. And keep moving!

DAY TRADE: LONG TQQQ @ $113.91

DAY TRADE ALERT - TREAD LIGHTLY Buying more TQQQ @ $113.91 Adding 5% 15% position Like I said in the first purchase post, this is a rare, open-book trade. I'm sharing to show what I'm actually doing. Unlike most of my trades, I do not recommend you follow this one. But I think we'll rally into the close from here - especially on the QQQ. So I'm pushing my bet. Win or lose, this will be sold before the market close.

DAY TRADE: LONG TQQQ @ $114.91

DAY TRADE ALERT - TREAD LIGHTLY Buying TQQQ @ $114.91 10% position This is a highly speculative trade. Not for the feint of heart. But in playing with an open hand, it's what I'm doing personally. It's month-end, which means there's a lot of "window dressing" that goes on at mutual funds and hedge funds. They basically only report their month-end holdings and want to look like they're smart. So they'll buy the trendy, hot stocks and dump some other positions - to make investors think they owned the trendy ones all along. The big stocks in the Nasdaq are all ripe to be bid into the close today. So I'm making a day trade. Whether it's a loser or winner, I will close this trade before the market close. And yes, I'm aware that Apple is a name I'm short and one of the largest weights in TQQQ (Triple QQQ). But I'm short Apple longer than today...sometimes we lack patience ;)

BUY SR @ $61.05

Buying SR @ $61.05 Adding 2% 6% total position I very rarely max out positions like this. Normally, I make money on my 2% and 4% trades and am pretty happy. This one hasn't gone so well quite yet. But I'm not worried. It's a well-thought and well-researched investment.  Utilities are my wheelhouse. I know them VERY well. Especially Spire. So I'm perfectly comfortable pushing the trade to a max size.  Sometimes, that's how you play the game. The nice thing about adding to a position at lower prices, is it lowers the bar to breaking even. 

BUY KMI @ $13.84

Buying KMI @ $13.84 2% position Phew, what a whirlwind of a week - and today! Did you see the earning from Chevron and Exxon? Not the best quarter ever over there. However, it's hard not to think the downward moves there today aren't decent buying opportunities.  Oil can't really go to zero. It's a pretty good value here around $40/barrel.  My favorite way to play oil prices is by buying the pipelines. You get some oil upside with contract-based downside. A hedged way to play the game.  Kinder Morgan pays a hefty dividend to boot. What's not to like? And, as I try to do, buying it back below where I sold it - and below where I bought it last time!

BUY THD @ $68.21

Buying THD @ $68.21 5% position If you thought I'd head into the weekend nearly 20% net short, you haven't been following me for very long. I try not to be too aggressively short into a weekend - you never know what "vaccine" or "stimulus" could come. So I'll add some Thailand exposure here to reduce my short exposure. It's not a perfect setup, but beats being long of bubble tech stocks domiciled in the USA.

BUY CCI @ $166.54

Buying CCI @ $166.54 2% position I've made it very clear that cell towers are one of my favorite businesses. Hopefully. With CCI having fallen nearly 10% in the last week or so, I'm going to add it back to my portfolio - lower than where I bought it last time around. Remember, cell tower companies make money when the cell providers access their towers. To fix signals, to expand signals, to inspect signals.  With the coming rollout of 5G, there will be lots of extra fees that cell tower companies will collect.  I'm looking to add AMT and/or SBAC as well if they experience weakness.

CLOSE PAIR: GOOGL vs. AMZN

Closing Pair Trade of Long GOOGL vs. Short AMZN Sell GOOGL @ $1,469.04 Cover AMZN @ $3,164.01 Realized gains/losses: GOOGL: loss of $0.31 (0.02%) AMZN: gain of $33.99 (1.06%) Total Realized Gain: 1.04% It's not much, but making 1% on a 10% position is pretty damn good in less than a day. Do it every day and you're up 20% for the year using just 10% of your capital. That's why I'm not afraid to lock in gains quickly. Gains are good. Nobody goes broke booking gains, even small ones.

PAIR TRADE: GOOGL vs. AMZN

Pair Trade: Long GOOGL vs. Short AMZN 5% positions Long GOOGL @ $1,469.35 Short AMZN @ $3,198.00 Oh, boy. I can't resist shorting Amazon and the big tech bubble stocks when I get a chance. Rather than outright short Amazon, I found GOOGL shares down ~5% on a day when the rest of the tech bubble world is up 5%.  "Feels" like they'll converge in short order.

SHORT AAPL @ $410.01

Shorting AAPL @ $410.01 2% position I did a great job covering AAPL last week at a slight gain (after doubling down) and see today's rally as a great chance to try again. The quarter was undoubtedly great. I don't know how they did it. But how can business get better than a blowout quarter in a recession?!? So I'll short one of the greatest companies on Earth after the greatest quarter ever.

Worst Quarter Ever - 7/31/20

The worst quarter ever was reported yesterday - with the US GDP shrinking by 32.9% annualized. Before I go any further, we need to discuss President Trump's Tweet:  Delay the election? If that doesn't scare you, you need to look in the mirror. The US has never delayed a Presidential election. This is him sewing the seeds for lawsuits he'll file WHEN he loses in November. He will refuse to accept the results - claim voter fraud - file lawsuits - and have to be dragged from the White House. If he wasn't already an embarrassment to our country, just wait. Apple and Amazon had blowout quarters - macro picture be damned. Shares are higher. They're looking like juicy shorts after his last gasp up. The jobless are buying iPhones? Goodness. __________________________________________ 1) If you're a visual person, here's a chart of quarterly GDP going back to the 1940s. Yeah, not even close.. 2) I shared a similar sentiment yesterday, but different asset classes are p

"We'll be there." - 7/30/20

Did you happen to watch Jerome Powell's press conference? He couldn't be more clueless about the inflation pressures he's creating by burning the dollar. He threw more gasoline on the fire yesterday by saying they're "not thinking about not thinking about not thinking about raising rates." He committed to the Fed having easy monetary policy well through the weakness - some of which they're furthering by giving loans to dead companies. But he'll never admit that. What a joke. He also failed to recognize that his policies are creating and furthering wealth inequality. Watching the presser was like eating the puke out of the toilet after a night of drinking too much. Let me know if you disagree. I took a shower right afterwards to try to feel clean - it didn't really help. The tech CEOs testifying in front of Congress was a non-event. They deftly handled most topics and didn't really give in to any of the witch hunting - whether some of

SELL EPD @ $18.61

Selling EPD @ $18.61 Realized gain of $0.97 (5.50%) Adding to the sales - selling EPD after a 5%+ gain. I made the right choice to keep EPD instead of KMI when I bought both - and am taking the Powell Pump as an excuse to lock in profits. What's the next catalyst for broad markets with the Fed out of the way? Earnings? Haha!

SELL TERP @ $20.79

Selling TERP @ $20.79 Realized gain of $1.08 (5.48%) Great job doubling down when shares got hit. I'll take the profit today after the 5%+ jump and be ready to buy again below $20. That might seem like walking a knife's edge to you - making a little bit here and there - but it works for me. I like to rotate through my ideas and buy the best ones at great prices to sell at good prices. TERP could very likely go higher from here. And that's ok. I got my return and can move on to more pressing ideas. Remember, making 5% in a few days is pretty darn great!

Kodak and Insider Trading

Just a note about Eastman Kodak (KODK) and their apparent deal to manufacture pharmaceuticals. I saw on Twitter - and verified on my trading platform - that shares of Kodak saw 30x daily volume THE DAY BEFORE the announcement that ultimately pushed shares to the moon. 30X THE DAY BEFORE If that doesn't make you livid, you're part of the problem. Clearly, someone knew the news AND ACTED before it was public. What a disgrace.

SELL TAP @ $36.67

Selling TAP @ $36.67 Realized loss of $1.37 (3.60%) BUD reports tomorrow and is looking like a sell, if not an outright short. Companies in the same industry tend to move together on large moves - and the odds of shares falling precipitously is greater than a rally - for BUD, the name with a catalyst. So as much as I think TAP has upside, I'm not willing to hold with it's industry peer at such a perilous spot with a catalyst. Taking a small loss when the odds of a decline exceed the odds of a gain makes sense to me. Don't be afraid to take small losses before they become big losses.

SELL SBAC @ $320.21

Selling SBAC @ $320.21 Realized gain of $22.46 (7.54%) CCI, another tower company, reports today after the close. Who knows what they'll say and how it will flow through to SBAC. So I'm going to lock in my gain and move on - out of an abundance of caution. Towers remain a favorite business, but not something I feel the need to own no matter what. I have a feeling I'll be able to get back in lower.

Brrrrr - 7/29/20

Today is Fed meeting day, where they'll formally announce the unlimited, permanent easing they strangely pre-annnounced yesterday. Nothing that Pond Scum Powell does is "normal" though, so we shouldn't be surprised. Besides, the market was down and needed a boost. Not that it mattered as the broad markets finished at the lows and saw pretty sizeable weakness take root in the final 90 minutes of trade. Lots of earnings to sort through, if that's your bag. And futures went green sometime in the overnight session (of course). ___________________________________________ 1) If you're someone that likes to pick your assets and have them perform different from other assets, it seems your time has come! Cross-asset correlations are elevated - which means they should normalize soon - so your bet on glass prices vs. cattle or 1980s Legos vs. 2000s Pokemon cards could finally pay off! 2) Lots of crowding in the momentum trade... 3) Interesting: ______

BUY TERP @ $19.21

Buying TERP @ $19.21 Adding 2% 4% position Renewable power is one of my favorite investments. It's low-maintenance, long-life assets with long-term, fixed-price contracts. What's not to like? And there's pretty great growth potential given the world's desire to move towards cleaner power. So with TERP shares down over 4%, I'll add some more.

Take it Easy (Money) - 7/28/20

Gold flew yesterday, up 2% with silver up over 5%. The inflation trade has taken off. I think it might see a correction sooner than later, but have no position other than a modest TIP position that is more of a call on interest rates than inflation, in my mind. Markets also had a green day driven by the GOP stimulus plan. Whether the Democrats approve of it or not will be the driving force for the next leg of the trade. I'm sure the Democrats want to add more to the stimulus, not take stuff out. When do we stop paying taxes? If the government can borrow and print in unlimited amounts, what's the point of taxes? It's just a phony game we play since it's all made up. What a sham. ______________________________________________ 1) Let's talk about negative policy rates again. Powell quashed the idea in June, but futures traders don't believe him. 2) The market indexes are pretty concentrated, but not at record levels. 3) Insiders are selling their s

SELL QQQE @ $62.01

Selling QQQE @ $62.01 Realized gain of $0.54 (0.88%) This was a position I wanted to hold over the weekend "just in case". Well, we got the GOP to agree to more stimulus and that's pushing markets higher today. I'm not too worried about more upside. And if the talks break down and/or the stimulus isn't approved, markets *should* sell off. At least, that's how they've historically worked. So I'll get rid of this trade and get back to being crazy net short.

Golden Stimulus - 7/27/20

Gold is hitting multi-year highs driven by global stimulus - specifically news that US Republicans have agreed overnight to another stimulus package which will include another round of direct payments and continued unemployment benefits. Because it's a V-shaped recovery. It's only a "V" if the person writing it had a slight upward slope on the bottom of their "L". And if it's a "V" recovery, why do we need more stimulus? I can't figure out that whole bag of cats. So of course futures are up too, because stocks love stimulus. It's going to be a fun week. _______________________________________ 1) I got into a Facebook argument with a lady who thinks the entire global pandemic was caused by Bill Gates, the most evil man on earth, and also might be fake. Never mind that we live in the epicenter country of the virus. And it's pretty clear Bill Gates doesn't want everybody to die. But some people without a perspective beyond

Week Ahead: July 27-31, 2020

What an interesting week we just had. I think the Nasdaq breaking below its trading channel has to be top of the list in terms of events in the stock markets. Microsoft reported great numbers but didn't have anything incremental to stay even more excited about, so the stock sold off. Tesla reported a profit, but lost money on it's core car business, and more big earnings are set for this coming week! What fun! In macro land, we've got even more China/USA trade tensions after the US forced China to shut its Houston office followed by China forcing the US to shut Chengdu. Good times. ________________________________________ Market summary for last week: U.S. Indices Dow  -0.8%  to 26,470. S&P 500  -0.3%  to 3,216. Nasdaq  -1.3%  to 10,363. Russell 2000  -0.3%  to 1,468. CBOE Volatility Index  +0.6%  to 25.84. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples  +0.8% . Utilities  +0.1% . Financials  +1.3% . Telecom  -1.1% . Healthcare  -0.7% . Industrials  -0.2% . Information Te

A Note on Due Diligence

I was thinking about this in the shower today, so use that as reference for my state of mind. I've been re-reading some of my "Trade" posts. The rationale for buying or selling tends to be pretty weak. Some of the utility purchases have decent write-ups, but the rest are extremely generic and/or lacking any real insights. But that's about the amount of work most of us do in our own personal accounts. We know a few tidbits about the industry and/or company. We have a general sense for valuation. And we make a bet. Thankfully, we tend to make a lot of smaller bets. If you own 30 companies (like the Dow Jones Average) in equal weights, each one would be 3.33% of your portfolio. Even if one goes to zero, you're not going to the poor house. So long as you have a semi-diversified basket of stocks, the amount of diligence required isn't necessarily high. Especially if you don't have a benchmark or performance mandates. With all of that being said, I might

BUY TERP @ $20.21

Buying TERP @ $20.21 2% position TERP is one I've traded pretty well here. I'm buying it back higher than my last sale, but it's down 10% in 2 days on no real news. The merger with Brookfield and transformation into Brookfield Renewable Corporation should happen soon, as the shareholder vote is on July 29th. I think TERP is a wonderful company in a space, renewable power, that has a limitless future. Down 10% in 2 days on modest volume? Yeah, I'll buy that. This also puts me at 10% short going into the weekend. That's about right.

BUY SKX @ $31.07

Buying SKX @ $31.07 2% position Skechers USA is a shoe company, first and foremost. People who grew up in the 90s will think of them as a cheap shoe company that memorably made the "shape ups" or whatever the name was. A shoe with a rounded bottom to help women get in shape. That's not the company any more. I first started getting interested in SKX as I've gotten really into running in the last year. Carbon plates inside shoes is the latest racing shoe craze. Skechers came out with the cheapest carbon plate shoe, which caught my attention. They've also had pretty good success in the affordable performance running category. Both trail running and road running. At ~30x P/E, it definitely isn't cheap. But it's as pure of a way to play affordable fitness as possible. I'd pick HOKA if it wasn't such a tiny part of DECK (Deckers). HOKA is making major inroads in the running world. If it was a pure-play public company, I'd have a core

BUY QQQE @ $61.47

Buying QQQE @ $61.47 5% position Heading into the weekend, I like to reduce my net short exposure. Rather than cover shorts, I usually buy longs. This time around, I'm buying the equal-weighted Nasdaq. As a rental position over the weekend, it's just fine. Now, is it strange that I'm short the S&P and the Russell but long the Nasdaq? A little. Is it strange that I'm long the Nasdaq after being short Apple? A little. But that's why I chose the equal-weight version - to minimize the impact of Apple and the other big, bubbly tech names.

Tech Reality - 7/24/20

We seemed to finally get the selloff, driven by tech, that I've been predicting. Microsoft had a great quarter but nothing incrementally positive to keep the stock heading higher. Apple got downgraded and is being investigated for price gouging or abusing monopoly power. Tesla seems to have cracked - with investors figuring out that their core business, selling cars, isn't turning a profit. The VIX jumped too. Somehow, small caps finished in the green. Intel had a solid quarter, but like MSFT, didn't have anything incremental to say to drive more upside...so the stock is looking weak. ___________________________________________ 1) The rest of the country opened up right about when cases started to jump. And it's not driven by increased testing as testing positivity rates actually increased. Who needs masks? 2) Permanent vs. Temporary closures. Looks like things are getting worse...who would have predicted that? 3) Speaking of Apple and being a monopoly,

COVER AAPL @ $372.36

Covering AAPL @ $370.50 Realized gain of $1.93 (0.52%) It was a great idea to double down on this short when I did. It got me closer to breakeven. I think this one could make some real money - and get back to $350, but I'm short enough and don't need this one to go wrong again. So I'll be thankful that I was "right" even if it took me 2 shots to get there. And we move on with life.

SELL EIX @ $56.93

Selling EIX @ $56.93 Realized gain of $0.91 (1.62%) This is a read on the broader markets. I hate using this word...but I've got a "feeling" that weakness is coming. And the odds of EIX going to $60 are worse than the odds of going to $54. So that means I should sell. I can always buy this one back whether I'm right or wrong.

Car Company Loses Money on Cars - 7/23/20

Markets were pretty much flat yesterday. No new vaccine or stimulus talks but nothing to panic about either. Tesla's earnings seemed like good news, but stripping out tax incentives and non-operating income they actually lost money on making cars. Not that it matters with shares up 3% premarket. Microsoft shares are down, thankfully, after growth slowed. Can't argue with that. And Chipotle crushed the quarter but shares are down as well - again, logical after the strong run-up. Futures are looking green this morning, but we'll see if it holds. _______________________________________ 1) The S&P's earnings yield (inverse of P/E) is lower than it's been over the last 10 years. An astute investor might compare this to the 10-year Treasury yield and say stocks are cheap. I used to be in that camp, but most investors are focused on hitting their nominal return and watching absolute P/E levels. So a nimble investor should consider both the relative and abso

BUY FE CALLS

Buying 9/18 FE $34 Calls for $1.95 0.5% position This is a HIGHLY speculative trade. First Energy (FE) is under investigation after allegations about bribery in the amount of $60 million or so surfaced at a related, now bankrupt spinoff of a nuclear subsidiary. I don't know all of the details, but a $15 billion market cap company falling 30% in 2 days with amounts in allegations in the $60 million range seems like an over-reaction. There might be sanctions, fines, punishments. But It should be somewhat muted. In any event, I'm risking 0.5% of my capital to possibly double or triple my money really quickly. This is a documentation of a trade, not a recommendation. Consult your own financial advisor and do your own due diligence. HIGHLY SPECULATIVE. Could go to zero.

BUY SR @ $64.81

Buying SR @ $64.81 Adding 2% 4% total position Like I keep saying, utility investing is about rotating capital from winners into losers. Make your 5-10% in one name, recycle it into your next idea that hasn't done well. I sold Sempra (SRE) and wanted to keep the exposure - so I rotated into a ticker without the "E" - SR. Spire is one of my top ideas down here. If you're a chart-ist, it looks like a company headed for the dumpster. But if you know anything about it, it's a safe utility. What's not to like? The darn thing traded in the $80s most of last year! I'll buy more on sale, like any reasonable investor should. Recycle that capital!

SELL IWM PUTS

Selling 8/14 IWM $143 strike puts @ $2.91 Realized gain of $0.17 (6.20%) I don't always day-trade options - but when I do, I make sure to make it worth my while. The straight-up short position in IWM ensures that I win as IWM falls. This was my "juice" to boost the trade and stay alive while I'm early to the call. Stay afloat until you see the boat.

SELL SRE @ $127.34

Selling SRE @ $127.34 Realized gain of $12.51 (10.89%) Like I keep saying, in the utilities investing world you have to recycle your capital after making an annual return in less than a year. So we hit 10% on Sempra  - which is about our annual target for a utility - and will move on. I think It's worth ~$140/share - so there's still upside left. But The risk/reward isn't as compelling as it was back below $120/share. And I think there will be another shot to buy below $120. I'll be back. 

BUY IWM PUTS

Buying 8/14 IWM puts @ $143 strike price for $2.74 0.5% position I'm bringing back some IWM puts. The last time I used puts on IWM, I made 16% - so let's hope this time nets about that much again. I'm starting with a small position and will add accordingly. Hopefully it pays off quickly though - because holding options over the weekend and watching that time premium burn off hurts!

SELL TLT @ $168.17

Selling TLT @ $168.17 Realized gain of $6.13 (3.78%) If I didn't own TIP, I wouldn't be selling TLT here. But it's pretty overextended and should correct for us to grab it at a better price. I was too quick in selling the first few slugs of the position, but such is life. If I had a larger position, I'd keep some of it. But I'll dump the position here and be ready to jump back in below $165. I might regret selling it today, but it's a tactical move that won't cause me to lose sleep. So I can live with it.

No Guidance - 7/22/20

Guidance and quarterly updates to guidance are normal things that help companies frame investor expectations for the year. Since the coronavirus, guidance has been pulled and suspended almost across the board. Normally, guidance pulls are horrible news. Nowadays? It's positive. Coca Cola reported earnings yesterday. There was no guidance given. The stock went up. If things are so great, why can't guidance be provided? It's one of the (many) things that irks me about this whole stock market rally on bad news and worsening outlooks. I was obviously overly bearish and worried about the downside. It doesn't look like the world will end, as I feared. But things still aren't rosy! Earnings will be down year over year! The millions of lost jobs and huge numbers of people not making mortgage payments will have consequences. You want some guidance? Tread lightly in the stock market. Especially on the long side. Also, why do we need more stimulus if the economy is gr

SELL VXX CALLS

Selling 8/21 VXX $60 calls @ $0.48 Realized gain of $0.06 (14.29%) Options are used for juice. The VXX moved maybe 2% but my options gained 14%! Part of that is a feedback loop wherein higher volatility means higher options prices. So betting on higher volatility with options gives me double juice on volatility increasing. I still believe this trade could work (and am holding a few contracts just in case), but couldn't resist locking in a double-digit percentage gain on a vast majority of the position. 14.29% x 0.50% = 0.71% portfolio return Annualized-ish = 0.71% x 200 = 142.90% Not that I'm implying this kind of money can be made every single day. But just that consistently making modest amounts of money is nothing to sneer about. It adds up over time.

SELL EWH @ $21.91

Selling EWH @ $21.91 Realized gain of $0.22 (1.01%) I put this one on over the weekend and told you it wouldn't last long. Today I got a shot to take it off at a decent 2-day gain. Annualize 1% gains on 5% positions over 2 days and you're up 5% on your portfolio over a year. Not too shabby using just 5% of your capital! But really, it was a risk-management trade that managed the risk. I'm ready to own the bet of markets seeing weakness in the coming days. No need to hedge right now.

Reality Beckons - 7/21/20

The reality of the economy can't be ignored by stocks forever. Why do we need more stimulus, something the White House is pushing, when jobs are growing at the fastest rate ever and the economy is "growing like we've never seen before"? Markets rallied yesterday on more vaccine hopes. This time from AstraZeneca and Pfizer. We don't sell off when vaccines aren't the answer - only rally on the "hopes". If that makes sense to you, let me know. The Nasdaq was up particularly more than the rest yesterday driven by Tesla (+~9%) and Amazon (+~7%). Google even joined the party up ~3%. I fought the urge to short the QQQ late in the day. I think I'll regret not making the move. __________________________________________________ 1) Good news! China is no longer the largest holder of our (US) debt! Yay! Bad news...we own our own debt...does it even exist if we own it? Doesn't that add to zero if we sell it and buy it? 2) It never hurts to fi

CLOSE PAIR: CVX vs. COP

Closing out pair trade of CVX vs. COP Sell CVX @ $85.59 Cover COP @ $39.39 Realized gain of: CVX: $0.18 (0.21%) COP: $0.42 (1.06%) Total Realized Gain: 1.27% Not a bad little day trade. I knew I wouldn't hold it long, but didn't plan to hold it just for a few hours. I got the urge to reduce gross exposure and a winning day trade with 10% of my capital is always nice. It might turn into a bigger win, had I held it. But nobody goes broke booking gains.

BUY VXX CALLS

Buying VXX $60 Calls expiring 8/21 for $0.42 0.5% position I think I mentioned starting this position last week, but have added to it pretty significantly today with VXX down 5% so far today. When markets sell off, VXX spikes. Hard. And if I'm right about the selloff being pretty robust, VXX should jump markedly. I don't expect these to get "in-the-money", but they're cheap and could double if I'm right. Especially if the selling starts this week.

SELL EWS @ $19.23

Selling EWS @ $19.23 Realized gain of $0.03 (0.16%) On today's early morning turnaround - where the IWM opened down pretty weak and has since rallied almost to green, I'll use the strength to dump some long exposure and up my short exposure. Earnings season is underway. What's the good news? That companies didn't go bust? Goodness. Sell the rally.

PAIR TRADE: CVX vs. COP

Pair trade! 5% each side. Long CVX @ $85.41 Short COP @ $39.81 News broke this morning that Chevron (CVX) is buying Noble Energy in an all-stock transaction. Obviously, shares of the buyer (CVX) fell on the news. I think it's likely to be an astute purchase - especially since it's using stock, not cash. Since I don't want to take undue oil exposure, I decided to pair it off against Conocophillips. I almost chose XOM, but decided not to. I also pushed the position size. When I go big on a trade, it's an indication that I plan to flip it pretty quickly. Big trade, quick trade. That's how I do it. I'm not an oil analyst, but have been following the sector for a long time. Chevron is great at this sort of thing - transacting and saving cash. So I'm betting they get this right.

Sleep Cycles - 7/20/20

I'm going through a sleep cycle where my body wants to sleep in later. So getting a later than normal start this morning. Which stinks because it's a Monday. But we'll get all of the pre-market work done as quickly as possible. It's not my first rodeo. The news this morning is vaccine optimism. Again. Futures were green most of the night before turning modestly red by the time I woke up. Remember, this is a huge week of earnings. Check out my "Week Ahead" note from Sunday if you want to see who reports when. ____________________________________________ 1) Here's a chart you might come across this week that implies further upside ahead. The top chart shows that bases on earnings revisions, the bottom is behind us. However, dig into it a bit and you'll see that the increase in the latest bar is miniscule. So bulls will share the top chart while bears will share the bottom chart. It's a beautiful fight, isn't it? 2) If you didn't c

Week Ahead: July 20-24, 2020

I'm busy knocking off a long list of small-ish projects. Finishing the last remaining walls of baseboard trim, some moulding going down my newly carpeted stairs, mowing the lawn. Pretty typical weekend stuff. Last week, 3 of the 4 US stock indexes were green - with only the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing lower. That's a pretty shocking event and something to be wary of as we continue into earnings season. U.S. Indices Dow  +2.3%  to 26,672. S&P 500  +1.3%  to 3,225. Nasdaq  -1.1%  to 10,503. Russell 2000  +3.7%  to 1,475. CBOE Volatility Index  -5.9%  to 25.68. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples  +1.5% . Utilities  +1.9% . Financials  +2.9% . Telecom  -0.5% . Healthcare  +3.7% . Industrials  +5.2% . Information Technology  -1.6% . Materials  +4.6% . Energy  +4.5% . Consumer Discretionary  -1.% . World Indices London  +3.2%  to 6,290. France  +2.%  to 5,069. Germany  +2.3%  to 12,920. Japan  +1.8%  to 22,696. China  -5.%  to 3,214. Hong Kong  -2.5%  to 25,089. India  +1.2%