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Showing posts from September, 2020

BUY CSCO @ $39.44

Buying CSCO @ $39.44 Adding 2% 4% position As a slight hedge to my XLK short and because I sold CWEN/A, I need some long exposure to round out my book. So I'll add some CSCO down quite a bit from my first purchase. Good month!

(RE)BUY NEE @ $275.48

(Re)buying NEE @ $275.48 2% position Today has been a whirlwind! We were up pretty big at the highs of the day and have since reversed and might* go red into the close.  I'll take NEE dropping from where I sold it earlier today to add it back. I'm in the catbird seat now with a $9 cushion in my wallet.

(RE)SHORT DUK @ $88.04

Re-shorting DUK $88.04 2% position After making a successful round-trip trade on this one, I told you I'd re-short it over $88...and here we are. Same story. Why is a seller up on news of a sale - when the news was refuted and there is no deal?

COVER DUK @ $87.07

Covering DUK @ $87.07 Realized gain of $0.46 (0.53%) It wasn't the plan to cover this one, when I shorted it. But then I got long the other side, NEE, and made a nice 3%+ on the day. So I put on a pretty aggressive stop as shares tumbled and it got hit. I think DUK should and will trade down below $83/share again - a 5% decline from here - but it's not worth being wedded to the position.  I might re-short it over $88. Yes, to some of you that's picking nits. Worrying about a quarter here and there. But to me, finding quarters every day is my edge. Anybody can match the market. To beat it, you need an edge. Some use research. Some use math. Some use leverage. I use active trading.

SELL NEE @ $277.16

Selling NEE @ $277.16 Realized gain of $9.06 (3.38%) I wish I'd gone bigger. The deal that never was made the rumored buyer fall and the seller (DUK) jump...as if there was a deal.  I should have bought a 10% stake on this one! It was too obvious! ***DUK is up from where I shorted and I'm entertaining the idea of shorting more.***

BUY NEE @ $268.10

Buying NEE @ $268.10 2% position The next leg of this DUK/NEE merger news that was probably just a trial balloon - after shorting DUK up 6% on the day - is to buy NEE down 5% on the day. It seems the deal isn't real. Why is NEE down 5% on a non-deal? Because they might do a deal? Might? Even if they do a deal, it will be accretive to value and earnings. It will be a regulated-focused deal with various levers to pull to extract extra gains for shareholders. It will de-risk the business. It will allow them to borrow at today's obscenely low rates for a productive asset. I'm not a fan of big, levered mergers in utilities...but buying a stock that's being punished for NOT doing a deal? Easy money.

SHORT DUK @ $87.53

Shorting DUK @ $87.53 2% position News came out last night that Duke turned down a takeover offer from NextEra Energy (NEE). It would have been the largest utility merger in US history, if it was true and got approved. There's some reporting this morning that there was no offer and the news is fake - which likely means it was floated by DUK or NEE as a trial balloon. I wouldn't be surprised to see NEE buy something/someone...but Duke? It would be a tough slog through the approval process. It's too big and operates in too many states - a key factor in utility mergers. Duke shares are up 6% on the news - that they might be a seller. This is a good time to short Duke, one of my least favorite utilities. I clash with their CEO, Lynn Good...for what it's worth. Personal feelings aside, this is a good time to short the stock.

COVER TSLA @ $429.17

Covering TSLA @ $429.17 Realized gain of $2.33 (0.54%) I'm taking a page out of yesterday's playbook and covering this one for a modest gain. Just in case it goes higher. If it does I can re-short. As much as I've complained about seeing it eventually fall below where I covered yesterday, I will continue to book gains where and when I can. Keep moving!

SHORT TSLA @ $431.50

Shorting TSLA @ $431.50 5% position I lamented not holding this trade longer yesterday - making just $2/share when I could have made almost double that by holding all day. Well, this is a chance to short at a higher price than I shorted yesterday! I doubt this will last all day.

Presidential Debate - 9/30/20

Last night, we got to see our two Presidential candidates debate. Sort of. Donald Trump barely let anybody else speak. I don't believe Joe Biden said a complete sentence without an interruption. Biden didn't just let himself get victimized - he called Trump a clown and got in a few good jabs while Trump railed about his typical list of favorite conspiracies. Trump most definitely lost the debate. He didn't seem Presidential, he acted like a baby, and showed his lack of respect and decorum. Biden didn't "win" so much as not lose. He got caught up in the childish behavior a little bit. But he spoke directly to the American people and generally seemed "with it". It was the most surreal debate I've ever seen. America lost, Trump lost, Biden survived. Trump also called for a white supremacist group, the Proud Boys, to "stand down and standby" when asked to denounce white supremacists. Obviously, not what was asked and more of a military orde

COVER TSLA @ $423.78

Covering TSLA @ $423.78 Realized gain of $2.15 (0.50%) I don't feel like babysitting this trade this afternoon. And it looks like this level could prove to be a battleground for a bit, so I'll take my small profit and keep moving with the rest of my day. TSLA is one of the tickers that I try to touch at least every few days..

SHORT TSLA @ $425.93

Shorting TSLA @ $425.93 5% position This might be a day trade and it might be held for a few days - most likely a day trade.  Anyhow, I can't stay way from shorting TSLA when it's spiking upwards in a down tape. It's had a pretty good intraday rally already - perhaps on the NKLA/GM news? In any event, I don't know if the rally will hold in this specific name. Thus, the short in a decent size.

SELL 1/2 GLD @ $177.13

Selling 1/2 of GLD @ $177.13 5% position remains Realized loss of $1.22 (-0.68%) Today's gold rally is just what I needed to reduce my position a bit. I still think gold and GLD are a fundamental, core holding - but using some risk-management to reduce my gross exposure.  I got all hyped up and bought GLD twice in short order. This is a reset to allow me to buy this slug back lower - or let the remaining piece fly higher.

Home vs. Away - 9/29/20

It's so nice to be back home at my normal "trading desk". I like my fast wifi and comfortable desk. At the lake house last week, I was on a leg-less couch - just off of the floor - with my main computer perched on a dining chair and my secondary monitor crowded on a small table with my coffee and notebook. By lunchtime each day, I was sore from the strange position and livid at the slow internet speed. The house there has the fastest wifi available - 24mpbs! Rural America is still so much different from the suburbs! We have a mid-level internet speed here in the Chicago suburbs and regularly see speeds approaching 250mbps! Yesterday was technically an up day, but it sure felt like a down day. We opened at the highs and had a few selloffs throughout the day. But volume on the rallies was low and it never felt  like rallies had legs. I had a good day, which we know usually is a red day event too. _________________________ 1) America, lead by Donald Trump, has done horribly

Practice Trades

Do you ever feel the urge to just trade? For not real reason other than to be active? I do. A lot. Rather than try to make real trades every single time, sometimes I trade just a share or two. Just to be active. Like today, I traded a few round trips on Tesla with one share. It's a good way to test a trade setup and your market read without risking much money. Like the odds of TSLA shooting up $10/share in a few minutes is pretty low. So worst-case, I lose $5-10. Best case, I make $5-10. But I gain knowledge and practice either way. So the next time I make a real money trade, I can have a bit more conviction - since I've been practicing the trade for a while.  Touching a certain stock every few days is also important just to follow it a bit. It helps me to sort of have a feel for how stocks trade throughout the day and week. So I also trade NVDA a few times a week in 1 share amounts. For practice.  It's fun and cheap and leads to knowledge. And my taxes will already be comp

SHORT QQQ @ $274.84

Shorting QQQ $274.84 5% position Last time I shorted the Qs, it was about $10/share lower. So this is a bit of a win for me. (I covered that short for a profit!) It looks like the market is reversing today and will plunge through the lows of the day. If I'm wrong, I'm not afraid to cover this one quickly. I just don't want to be long - this puts me to 0% net.

SHORT KRE @ $35.77

Shorting KRE @ $35.77 5% position Shorting regional banks here with them up over 3% on the day. After seeing that ECB vs. European banks chart in my Morning Note today, I'm pretty (justifiably) bearish on US banks - regardless of which direction broader equity markets go. Banks just can't make big profits with rates so low. Unless they charge other fees. And consumers HATE those other fees. Thankfully, internet banks have all but eliminated the traditional fees so the old school banks will suffer.

COVER UUP @ $25.48

Covering UUP @ $25.48 Realized gain of $0.08 (0.31%) Nothing to read into on this one. Just reducing my gross exposure again based on a "feeling". This wasn't going to set the world on fire as a profitable trade, so it's not a big deal to get out.

SELL GOOGL @ $1,455.24

Selling GOOGL @ $1,455.24 Realized gain of $33.39 (2.35%) Not a bad trade here. I thought GOOGL would bounce off of its 150-day moving average and it did. But it reversed today and is at the lows and looking to continue falling. That's a sign to dump it and move on. The market might be rallying, but it's looking weak from my vantage point. I may not be long for long.

$750 in Taxes - 9/28/20

Maybe I'm a little late to this party, but Trump paid only $750 in taxes for two consecutive years? The supposed billionaire? I know there are a lot of way to play the tax game, but at some point your revenues are so large that taxes become necessary. The way Warren Buffett avoids taxes is by having his "wealth" separate from his "revenues". He's wealthy because he owns and never sells Berkshire stock. But is "only" paid $100,000 or whatever in salary. It's a simple, legal setup that passes the smell test. Trump on the other hand collects rent and royalties and other fees. He can use depreciation and interest deductions among other tools...but at some point, he has to sell the property and roll it into a newer, higher prices property to keep up the depreciation game - which would require capital inflows - or he would have to pay taxes.  The best take I saw on the situation was from GoCurryCracker.com's author who believes it looks like a mo

Weed Ahead: September 28 - October 2, 2020

Welcome to another "Week Ahead" where I try to recap last week, look forward to this coming, and talk about whatever is on my mind. __________________________ Performance for this past week: U.S. Indices Dow  -1.8%  to 27,174. S&P 500  -0.6%  to 3,298. Nasdaq  +1.1%  to 10,914. Russell 2000  -4.1%  to 1,474. CBOE Volatility Index  +2.1%  to 26.38. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples  -0.8% . Utilities  -0.4% . Financials  -5.3% . Telecom  -1.7% . Healthcare  -3.6% . Industrials  -4.% . Information Technology  -0.3% . Materials  -5.4% . Energy  -8.5% . Consumer Discretionary  -0.3% . World Indices London  -2.7%  to 5,843. France  -5.%  to 4,730. Germany  -4.9%  to 12,469. Japan  -0.7%  to 23,205. China  -3.6%  to 3,219. Hong Kong  -5.%  to 23,235. India  -3.8%  to 37,389. Commodities and Bonds Crude Oil WTI  -2.6%  to $40.05/bbl. Gold  -5.%  to $1,864.2/oz. Natural Gas  +3.9%  to 2.127. Ten-Year Treasury Yield  +0.%  to 139.63. Forex and Cryptos EUR/USD  -1.74% . USD/JPY 

SELL to OPEN TSLA $340 Puts (Expiring Next Friday)

Selling to Open TSLA $340 Puts for $2.21 10% position, if exercised I was going to call it a day, but figured I might as well try to lock in some income for next week. TSLA has such high volatility that it makes the puts highly priced - good for those of us who want to sell! Shares would have to fall from $403 to $340, ~16%, for me to lose money on this one. And don't forget that 2 days of time premium will burn off over the weekend! Selling puts is stressful. But I think it's a decent way to make some money.

SELL to OPEN TSLA $395 Puts

Selling to Open TSLA $395 Puts for $1.34 10% position, if exercised Add this lesson: don't let your short or long bias keep you from a profitable trade. Make money when you can. And I think this will be another profitable trade. If I've got idle cash, why not put it to use?

SELL to OPEN ROKU $177.50 Puts

Selling to Open ROKU $177.50 Puts for $0.50 10% position, if exercised The way I spend my Fridays is digging through my ticker list and finding stocks that still have potential  to crash on the day that I don't think will crash.  That is, selling puts, collecting the premium, and watching the stock trade flat or up into the close. I think ROKU will close over $177.50 on the day and am making a bet that I'm right. I wish I could sell an even tighter strike price - maybe $179 - but that doesn't exist. As always, I'll watch it closely and get out if things go sour. It helps that I've booked a few gains today and can afford to take a small loss on this trade - if it gets to that.

SHORT EWA @ $19.70

Shorting EWA @ $19.70 5% position I shorted and covered this one earlier this week...and it's somewhere between where I shorted and where I covered. So I'll take another shot at it and short it again over the weekend. I let my equity exposure get to 17% long and think that's a bit too much. 12% is better, but 10% is where I'll likely get by the end of the day.

BUY GOOGL @ $1,421.85

Buying GOOGL @ $1,421.85 2% position I know it's not very fancy, but looking at the price of a stock relative to a moving average is a longstanding Wall Street approach to timing a stock purchase and sale. It doesn't backtest well. But when you like the fundamentals of a company AND the price is approaching your moving-average of choice, perhaps that's a better way? In any event, I am buying GOOGL. It is approaching the 150-day at a healthy pace. It's in an oversold sector, the tech-heavy QQQ or XLK, and is a company I fundamentally like.  Now to find a/some shorts to reduce my net equity exposure...

BUY to CLOSE AAPL $106.25 Puts

Buying to Close AAPL $106.25 Puts for $0.10 Realized gain of $0.25 (0.23%) Obviously, making 1/4 percent isn't much. But it's about what a savings account pays in a whole year - and I just made it in a day by betting Apple would close above yesterday's lows...in an up tape. I had a stop order in that got hit, otherwise I would have held these through the end of the day until they were worthless. It looks like I had the stop too tight, but that's ok.

DAY TRADE: COVER TSLA @ $403.71

*****DAY TRADE***** Covering TSLA @ $403.71 Realized gain of $1.57 (0.39%) Sometimes you have to touch a position a few times. Sometimes you can trade it a few times a day and recycle your capital - doubling or tripling the return you make on it for the day. I decided to short TSLA a second time today, at a higher price, and made another decent chunk of gains. I was ready to call it a day but can't end on a hot streak! We can add the profits from my two TSLA trades today to get a pretty impressive 1.04% on the day. Shorting a stock that's up 4%!

BUY to CLOSE TSLA $390 Puts

Buying to Close TSLA $390 Puts for $1.84 Realized gain of $1.66 (0.42%) Another successful put option trade! I had my best investing year every in 2019 by exclusively selling puts. I sold all of my other positions and didn't trade anything the entire year. Just sold puts. I thought the market would grind higher and didn't see much risk of a decline, so it was the perfect setup.  2020 has been a completely different year. So I've had to change. Even now, I don't see selling puts like I did in 2019 as a viable strategy. But that doesn't mean I can't actively trade put options! Selling puts on expiration day reduces the risk that the stock will fall. It lowers the return potential, but that's why I gross up my position size.

SELL to OPEN TSLA $390 Puts

Selling to Open TSLA $390 Puts for $3.50 10% position, if exercised I like to short Tesla. Maybe more than anybody! But I'm also a realist and don't see the current setup leading to TSLA closing below $390 today. So I'll take a VERY aggressive bet by selling some puts at this strike. It could net me 1%!

DAY TRADE: TSLA Round-trip Short

*****DAY TRADE****** Shorted TSLA @ $400.51 10% position Covered TSLA @ $397.91 Realized gain of $2.60 (0.65%) Before I could fire out a note, this day trade of shorting TSLA made the round trip. It might not seem like a lot to you, but making 0.5% here and there really adds up over time. I need a few bigger winners to offset by bigger losers, but in the meantime I'll keep clipping coupons on trades like this.

DAY TRADE: SELL TNA @ $27.48

****DAY TRADE**** Selling TNA @ $27.48 Realized gain of $0.42 (1.55%) I thought I'd get more out of this trade - seriously - but my stop loss got hit. I aggressively moved it up as the share price jumped and got hit. Oh, well. It looks like volatility is spiking for some reason.  It was a good trade!

DAY TRADE: BUY TNA @ $27.06

*****DAY TRADE****** Buying TNA @ $27.06 5% position A small position to start this day trade, but I'm buying the 3x version of the Russell (IWM) here at the open. The VIX is down and I think stocks are oversold, in the immediate term - i.e. today. I'll try to make some quick money and run before the close with this one.

SELLL to OPEN AAPL $106.25 Puts

Selling to Open AAPL $106.25 Puts for $0.35 5% position I told you in my daily note that I'd sell some puts on the open and here we go. I had an order in for another stock, but the share price jumped before I got hit - so I cancelled that order. I don't think AAPL will close below $107 today - given the VIX and broad market setup right now. If something changes, I'll jump out.

More Stimulus? - 9/25/20

It looks like our pal Mnuchin and our gal, Nancy Pelosi, are back to discussing a lower dollar value of stimulus. They've spoken "15-20 times" in the last few days, apparently. I doubt it gets done - it would be too much of a win for Trump so near the election, but we'll see. Futures are looking red again, off by nearly 1.0% this morning. If yesterday's rally into the close (after selling off in the afternoon) is any indication, this might be another chance to buy - for a trade. I'll probably sell some puts at the open unless selling accelerates between now and then. I'm still at the lake house. We planned to leave on Tuesday....then Wednesday...and now we're here on Friday!  _________________________________________________________________   Going to enjoy one last sunrise over the lake, no charts again: ___________________________________ Hopefully it's been helpful to pull back the curtain on how I navigate the choppy markets this week. I'm

A Note on Recent Day-Trading

I'm sure you've noticed in the last few days, but I've begun to day trade a bit more. I think being able to have a feel for the market in real-time is supremely important. We can't lose sight of the big picture and the direction the market "should" go, but we also shouldn't lose touch of where the market is going  in both the medium and super-near term.  I missed the rally off of the March lows. My view for the long-term blinded me from the medium-term reality. I'm trying to better navigate the long-term, medium-term, and short-term. The spike in volatility in this selloff has created a lot of chop and stocks swing pretty widely within a day. That's an opportunity to trade! I like selling cash-secured puts as a way to bet the selloff is mostly over. It gives me downside protection while providing some sort of gain. It's safer than a short or a long. And the payoff is less because of that. I size these trades pretty big because the risk is lower

DAY TRADE: COVER TSLA @ $382.74

****DAY TRADE**** Cover TSLA @ $382.74 Realized gain of $8.63 (2.21%) I realize it's a whirlwind of a trading experience, but I want to show you how I navigate the markets in real-time. I don't always day trade in large quantities, repeatedly, but when I do... Seriously, this was a late-day gift!

DAY TRADE: COVER TSLA @ $387.54

***DAY TRADE**** Covering TSLA @ $387.54 Realized gain of $4.04 (1.03%) I put out a big short bet late in the day after I saw the VIX spike and Tesla shares were up after being down at the open. So I pushed some big chips into the middle of the table and took a shot at helping out my day. I don't do this too often, but this volatile market means that I make big, fast bets. Some people reduce their bets as volatility rises and don't change their holding period. I do the opposite - shorter holding periods and bigger bets. You have to learn what works for you. Sadly, it means losing money along the way. And I've lost my share as I've built out an approach that works for me!

BUY to CLOSE AAPL $105 Puts

Buying to CLOSE AAPL $105 Puts for $0.25 Realized gain of $0.17 (0.16%) With Apple shares up this afternoon, my puts made me some money. Sure, I could make the last $0.25 by holding overnight and through tomorrow - letting them expire worthless...but that's someone else's money to make. I'll take my money, reduce my overnight risk...and not have to buy AAPL shares if they happen to crash tomorrow. I made about 1/3 of my potential - and have flipped this 10% of my portfolio 2x today. Making 1/4 percent two times is 0.5%. In a day. Sure, that's just 5 bps on the whole book. But it buys my taco lunch and then some!

BUY to CLOSE TSLA $345 Puts

Buying to CLOSE TSLA $345 Puts for $2.20 Realized gain of $1.30 (0.37%) That one happened fast! You have to be ready to take your money and run sometimes. It looks like I got out a little bit early on this one, but you never know which way the market is going to turn!

SELL to OPEN TSLA $345 Puts

Selling to OPEN TSLA $345 Puts for $3.50 10% position, if exercised It worked yesterday and today's price is even better! I'm no TSLA bull at today's prices, but it's been crushed lately. Too far, too fast?  I'll try to make some more quick money selling TSLA puts today.

COVER EWA @ $19.52

Covering EWA @ $19.52 Realized gain of $0.35 (1.76%) It seems to me that the immediate selling pressure is over, so I'll move my book even more net long - now at 15% long of equities. With the volatility this high, you have to trade actively!

SHORT UUP @ $25.56

Shorting UUP @ $25.56 5% position A rare pre-market trade here. I'm shorting the US Dollar with Powell and Mnuchin still trying to convince the public that they need  to burn the dollar to save the economy.  I am taking a look at GLD -  which would be my 3rd and final bullet on that particular asset.

Bring on the Red - 9/24/20

I've been musing all week about my intra-day trading performance on red vs. green days. Well, I've done well on the two red days and done horribly on the one green day this week. Today is looking to be another red day at the open and hopefully that means I do well again. I thought the selling was done yesterday morning - and sold cash-secured puts on TSLA (one of my favorite shorts) to really show you that I thought the selling would stop. After taking some quick profits on those trades, the market took another leg down. Toward the end of the day, I again sold some TSLA puts - and again got out before shares turned lower once more. TSLA is down about 4% right now, an hour before the open, so my puts would have been hurting me today. Sometimes, it's best to take the quick money. BTW, I went and bought too many Burger King Impossible Whoppers & fries and some McDonald's apple pies with the money I made on my put earnings yesterday. It was a delicious, hard-earned trea

COVER QQQ @ $263.73

Covering QQQ @ $263.73 Realized gain of $1.83 (0.69%) Taking advantage of today's dump to get out of a position in which I expected to lose money. I think this hardcore of a dump isn't sustainable so will be the most net long I've been in a very, very long time.

BUY to CLOSE TSLA $345 Puts

Buying to CLOSE TSLA $345 Puts for $1.69 Realized gain of $0.96 (0.28%) Another TSLA put trade where I would have made more money just buying the stock - but not when you account for risk! I'll take my quick money again and buy some pizza or something later today.  California banning the sale of vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035 is good news for TSLA...

SELL to OPEN TSLA $345 Puts

Selling to OPEN TSLA $345 puts for $2.65 10% position, if exercised Man, today was a whipsaw! I sold some puts when I thought the lows were in. Bought to close those puts after an intraday rally....and now am back to selling more puts. Hopefully at lows of some sort! Rather than get cute and jam a humongous, 20% put position in a single name, I'll keep it to 10% and pick a strike price in the middle of the last set of trades.  When I sell puts, I try to make about 0.5% or more in a week AND not get hit. Sometimes, the strike price is too close to the market price for my taste. Sometimes I can get a ton of space for the stock to move. This is a middle ground, but should be fine - especially after TSLA has dumped hard for 2 days in a row and down nearly 40% from the peak.

BUY to CLOSE TSLA $358 Puts

Buying to CLOSE TSLA $358 puts for $2.65 Realized gain of $1.30 (0.36%) Sure, I would have made more money buying TSLA shares down at ~$385 and selling now for ~$391...but that's a much higher risk proposition than the way I did it.  I pushed around 20% of my capital (as collateral) to make a quick 0.25% in an hour or so between the two TSLA put options trades. That added 5bps to my stack of cash in a hurry! Not a lot of money, but more than if I'd sat on my hands all day waiting for a bailout.

BUY to CLOSE TSLA $340 Puts

Buying to CLOSE TSLA $340 puts for $1.19 Realized gain of $0.51 (0.15%) Look, it's not much - but it locks in $0.50 of profit on my other TSLA put trade. And this was the "juice" trade. The one where I pushed my bets - perhaps a bit too far. So I'm taking my quick money and not hearing any guff about trading too fast. That's how I do it sometimes.

SELL to OPEN TSLA $340 Puts

Selling to Open TSLA $340 puts expiring Friday 9/25 for $1.70 10% position, if exercised A way to hedge your short puts is by selling more puts. Yes, it's a little counter-intuitive...but if I think shares won't go below a certain level - $358 - then I surely think they won't go EVEN LOWER below $340. So selling even farther out-of-the-money options means my breakeven price is a bit lower - if shares close between the two strike prices. Yes, I'm pretty darn long of TSLA in a way right now - despite it being a favorite short. But sometimes we have to go against the grain to eek out a profit.

SELL to OPEN TSLA $358 Puts

Selling to OPEN TSLA $358.00 puts expiring 9/27 for $3.95 10% of capital, if exercised One of the way to benefit from selling that's overdone without taking direct long exposure is to sell out-of-the-money puts. Puts with a strike price below the current market price of the stock. As much as I think TSLA is a short, it's sold off extremely hard in the last few days. So I think it will pause and consolidate for a bit. If selling keeps up, I still get some downside protection by being ~10% more below the market price.  If the stock goes higher, my puts move to zero and I win. If it stays flat, I also win as the time premium of the option burns away. If everything goes according to plan, I should make at least 0.5% to 1% on my money in a few days - if not sooner. That's pretty good.

SHORT EWA @ $19.87

Shorting EWA @ $19.87 5% position Shorts are a bit hard to find after the latest dump, but Australia has recovered some since the recent lows. And it's a commodity country experiencing its first recession in 30 years. I see commodities being generally weak, especially energy commodities, and think this could lead to more selling of Australian equities. This is a short-leash trade. I'll be right or wrong pretty quick.

BUY GDX @ $39.27

Buying GDX @ $39.27 5% position After buying GLD two times and seeing the VIX continue to decline, it's time to buy the gold miners - GDX. I still have room to buy one more slug of GLD before hitting my 15% limit on currencies, but think getting more net long of equities makes sense too. I can accomplish getting more long of gold and equities by purchasing the gold miners. If markets start to look sloppy again, I can get short in a hurry. Until then, I'll try to surf the wave.

Worse on Green? - 9/23/20

Yesterday morning, I mused about being a better day-trader on red days. Well, yesterday was a green day and I had a rough go of it. It's not the lack of volatility on green, it's just something about how my brain reads the signals and can't make sense of it...or does the opposite. The good news is that I was net long before the day! Anyhow, I don't have cable here at the family lake house so feel a bit disconnected. Normally, I've got CNBC chirping all day while I trade and invest. Up here, the internet is pretty slow so I trade in silence and with just my phone's Twitter feed to give me news. I don't think I perform any better or worse, but I very much prefer having the TV going. Oh, well. This might be our last time here for the season. It's getting cold and we're working on shutting it down. _____________________________ No charts today - going to enjoy a sunrise over the water instead. _____________________________ Not much to say today. I'm

BUY GLD @ $178.35

Buying GLD @ $178.35 Adding 5% 10% position With Powell and Mnuchin testifying before Congress about the need for MORE stimulus, telling stories about NOT creating/fostering asset bubbles, and burning the US dollar at the stake it makes sense to buy a permanent asset that they can't ruin...GOLD! I'm buying here a bit higher than where I started the position, but it was in the $180s yesterday and could approach $190 in short order.

Better on Red? - 9/22/20

I think I trade better on red days. On my intra-day trades where I'm flipping stuff around and not sharing it here. I need to take better notes, but it feels  like I'm better on red. Maybe I'm better on higher volatility - which tends to happen on red. I think I'll add it to my paper notebook  that I keep each and every day. How did you fare yesterday? Was it a scary day? Or were you positioned ahead  of the drop and ready to act in either direction depending on how the day went?  To be perfectly clear, the time to act is before  the move. Reduce your positions on rallies to be ready to buy again on the decline. Build up your positions on declines to be ready to sell on rallies. It's really hard to do, believe me. But it's the way to navigate the market and have consistent performance. Maybe that's important to you, maybe you're a home run hitter who can stomach striking out most of the time. Anyhow, I'm now net long for the first time in a very long

BUY CWEN/A @ $22.65

Buying CWEN/A @ $22.65 2% position When a favorite name in a sector is down more than the rest of the group, you buy it. CWEN/A, Clearway Energy, is a renewable power company. They own renewable power assets, windmills/solar farms, with long-term contracts with utilities. It's a great set of assets in any environment, but with rates so low and demand for green power so high, it should be a clear winner. See my XOM sale note for more about the big oil majors becoming renewable energy giants in the coming decades... I chose the A shares over the regular, CWEN shares. No real reason why.

SHORT QQQ @ $265.56

Shorting QQQ $265.56 5% position After taking a bunch of pain covering shorts (and selling a few longs), I need to reduce my net equity exposure. Rather than take MORE pain, I'll short the index that's down the least today. This is not an outright short of the Nasdaq. It's a portfolio management trade to manage my net exposure. I expect  to lose money on this one. But it helps manage my risks and avoid selling my longs. This brings me to 3% net long and 48% gross invested. That's about right for now.

SELL XOM @ $36.20

Selling XOM @ $36.20 Realized loss of $5.08 (-12.31%) Taking some more pain today as I rejigger my book. Did you see that Royal Dutch Shell and BP are trying to get carbon neutral in the next 5-10 years? And stop investing in oil and gas? They'll be building and buying renewable power assets. That's great news for my favorite sector, renewable power, and one that isn't going to be sold naked again. (I own AY right now and have a big watch list of the group.) So I'll dump the fossil that is fossil fuels. This is mostly a portfolio management/risk exposure trade, not a dump of XOM per se. If your portfolio can take the equity exposure, it probably makes sense to keep it around. I need to reduce mine though.

COVER 1/3 of IWM Short @ $146.88

Covering 1/3 of IWM @ $146.88 Realized loss of $17.13 (13.20%) This one hurts...but it makes sense to cover some of the position after today's sharp selloff. I think I'll be able to re-short it higher in a day or so. Volatility has pulled back from its highs of the day, so we might rally a bit into the close and perhaps for a day or two. I think the IWM could still fall significantly, but also need to risk-manage my positions. I'm 10% long right now and don't know how to feel.

COVER IEUR @ $44.48

Covering IEUR @ $44.48 Realized gain of $2.27 (4.86%) Market seems to have made the lows of the day. Time to see if we rally before deciding how to proceed. I'm now 5% net long, which isn't ideal to be overnight but won't make me lose sleep either.

COVER SPY @ $322.17

Covering SPY @ $322.17 Realized loss of $6.64 (2.10%) I've held this short for a long time. It was painful as it went very  against me. So I'll use today's weakness (continued from last week) as an exit. Taking a small loss surely beats a big loss. I think it might go lower still, but I'm not willing to take the pain....I've got my pain trade still going with my IWM short! This puts me net long by 3%, which isn't going to be where I end the day. 

COVER TSLA @ $410.37

Covering TSLA @ $410.37 Realized gain of $12.17 (2.88%) When this trade went against me did I panic? Nope. I added to it a few times on little trades. Covered those additive trades, holding back my core trade. And pushed it gain this morning.  And then it crashed. So I covered the whole thing for a profit.  I'm going to try to ignore TSLA for a few days, but it's my catnip and I can't stay away for long. Good work this time around!

BUY GLD @ $177.77

Buying GLD @ $177.77 5% position It's time to add back some GLD into the portfolio. I've been trying to navigate the chop and have done pretty well. After selling my position in the $180s, today gives me a chance to buy lower. This is why having a low gross exposure ahead of market declines is paramount. You can grab the good deals without having to dump something at a crash price. Sell high, buy low.

SHORT TSLA @ $452.00

Shorting TSLA @ $452.00 Adding 2% 4% position Tesla is up because Nikola is down? I guess folks are moving their "EV allocation" to Tesla, the safer of the two companies? At some point, GM might just buy all of NKLA... And bad news for NKLA isn't good news for TSLA - from a business standpoint. NKLA DOESN'T MAKE ANYTHING!

Nikola's Story Ends - 9/21/20

Hopefully you've been reading and heeding my warnings - stock index futures are down 1.5-2% this morning on the news of Ruth Bader Ginsberg's death and Trump and his cronies jamming through a nominee before the end of the year. Also, Nikola's founder abruptly resigned amid weeks of accusations that the company is a fraud. The founder resigning sort of proves the company is a fraud - hopefully the folks at GM who took a 10%+ stake recently did their homework and think it's not a fraud... There's a lot to do when futures tank like this, so get active and take advantage of the chop - whether you're positioned for it *before* it happens or not. Make the best of it, however you're set up. I'm pretty well positioned, I wish I was shorter, but will definitely be making money today. ____________________________ 1) Hot & not since market peak: 2) Folks upped their gross exposure at the wrong time. Just as I was reducing mine! 3) ICU occupancy, in case you for

Week Ahead: September 21-27, 2029

What a week! I hope you survived the Quadruple Witching on Friday. It wasn't as volatile as I was fearing...I guess a lot of the heavy call option buyers knew they'd expire worthless after the selloff. I've got a few varying, random thoughts to discuss this week...but as always, let's look at performance from the prior week: ________________________ U.S. Indices Dow  0.0%  to 27,657. S&P 500  -0.7%  to 3,319. Nasdaq  -0.6%  to 10,793. Russell 2000  +2.7%  to 1,537. CBOE Volatility Index  -3.9%  to 25.83. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples  -1.7% . Utilities  -0.8% . Financials  -0.2% . Telecom  -2.3% . Healthcare  +0.8% . Industrials  +1.5% . Information Technology  -1.% . Materials  +0.9% . Energy  +2.9% . Consumer Discretionary  -2.3% . World Indices London  -0.4%  to 6,007. France  -1.1%  to 4,978. Germany  -0.7%  to 13,116. Japan  -0.2%  to 23,360. China  +2.4%  to 3,338. Hong Kong  -0.2%  to 24,455. India  0.0%  to 38,846. Commodities and Bonds Crude Oil WTI 

FE Calls Expire Worthless...

My FE calls expires worthless today. It hurts - I lost 0.5% of my capital on the trade - but that's how the trading life works sometimes. It's why buying stocks is usually the better bet - you don't have to worry about time. But it could have gone the other way. The bad news could have mounted and pushed the stock down much more than the amount I lost on this trade. The stock price is up from where I put on this position, so it would have been better to buy in this case, but I don't think the risk/reward at the time was in my favor.  The lesson here is to trade in smaller amounts when using options knowing that they will probably expire worthless.  I usually think of my options trades in terms of the underlying value, if exercised, but got cute on this big trade.  Mistakes will be made, but we have to learn from each one. Sometimes more than once!

Buying Weekend Puts

Buying to close my "weekend puts" TSLA $330 @ $2.35 - realized gain of $0.50 (0.15%) COST $315 @ $1.31 - realized gain of $0.41 (0.13%) Whenever I make a trade, I put in a limit order at a price I think won't get hit that day. Well, both of the limits on my "weekend puts" got hit as the stocks rallied. Again, not making much money on these - just trying to buy my guacamole - but pushing around 5% of my book and making little bits here and there sure feels like winning to me.

SELL KR @ $32.95

Selling KR @ $32.95 Realized gain of $0.16 (0.49%) When I bought, I said it could bounce off of the moving average, 150-day, but also said it was approaching at a steep rate. That should have meant a big, fast bounce. It has had a soft bounce and looks to fall from here...so I'll take today as a chance to get out with a small profit and hunt for more opportunities elsewhere.

BUY AAPL $105 Puts

Buying to close AAPL $105 puts expiring today for $0.10 Realized gain of $0.20 (0.19%) Not a bad little trade - selling volatility on Apple as it was crashing - leaving plenty of cushion in case the crash continued. The key with selling puts is being comfortable in buying the shares at the strike price, if only for a rental. And we can agree there are worse things than buying AAPL at $105...especially considering the Robin Hoodies were buying it over $130 because stock splits create value... I also almost always buy to close my puts just in case there's a crash at the close. It leaves a small amount of money on the table, but gives me so much peace of mind. With VIX elevated, I like selling short-term volatility - making sure to have enough cushion if the selloff continues as it should in this instance...

Selling Weekend Puts

Selling a series of cash-secured puts over the weekend: Both expire on 9/27 and are 5% positions: TSLA $330 @ $2.85 COST $315 @ $1.72 With volatility so elevated, one way to take advantage of it is to sell options. I prefer to sell out-of-the-money puts, but you could sell calls against your long positions. If stocks don't fall over the weekend, the puts will decrease in value as a few days of premium disappears/gets burned off. Setting the right strike price is the key to this strategy. You want the options to expire worthless, so going deep in-the-money is the key. Just deep enough to justify putting up the cash, but no so deep that the risk isn't worth the reward.  Hopefully I've struck that balance with these trades. And, yes...I'm aware that selling puts sort of makes me long of the stock. Like I'm now "long" of TSLA at $330/share - which is 24% below today's price. **I might cover these today, if we rally hard...but it's unlikely.**

SELL VXX @ $24.88

Selling VXX @ $24.88 Realized gain of $0.07 (0.28%) I had a few chances to sell this one at a better price earlier this week but chose to hold it. It was down this morning and has spiked this afternoon - giving me a chance to get out before the weekend to reduce my gross exposure. It's a smaller profit than I hoped to achieve, but a small profit beats a loss! *Also, I was way wrong on calling the lows of the day in on my LONG QQQ note...thank goodness I yanked it fast!*

SELL QQQ @ $265.25

Selling QQQ @ $265.25 Realized gain of $0.53 (0.20%) I told you this one would have a tight leash. I don't like how the various VIX/VXN indexes are looking, but also think we might defy gravity into the close. In any event, on days like this you take your profits quick. Rinse and repeat. And don't get trapped! Because the sand is shifting under the surface of the price. I know making small profits isn't very exciting to most of you, but it gets me jazzed. It means I can buy the large guacamole at Chipotle instead of a small. It's the little things in life...